Wednesday, December 31, 2008
More predictions
This is for 2009. I have cut out all of the text that included the rationale for these. That's to keep you guessing.
- Either a new country will be created somewhere in the world in 2009, or a country will disappear.
- The GDP of the US will be lower in 3Q2009 than it was in 4Q2008. It will be higher in 3Q2009 than it was in 2Q2009. (I would like to use the 4Q2009 numbers but I am assuming they will be unavailable at the time I evaluate these at the end of next year, so I have to work with what I expect to have, which will probably just be sleazy estimates of 3Q2009 that will be "revised" later, as always.)
I have a few personal predictions that I won't talk about here because you can't measure whether I am successful on them against any objective standard -- they are issues or people that I don't talk about here. So let's see, of the things I talk about -- I am not even sure that I'm going to successfully buy a house (my real estate agent is reading this right now and groaning at that, I assure you), the car thing I'm not sure of, I don't want anything to change about my job (hi employer!). I'm going to go with:
- I am going to put up an additional new web site in 2009.
- The Western Syndicate site will still be going same as ever at the end of 2009.
- Either a new country will be created somewhere in the world in 2009, or a country will disappear.
- The GDP of the US will be lower in 3Q2009 than it was in 4Q2008. It will be higher in 3Q2009 than it was in 2Q2009. (I would like to use the 4Q2009 numbers but I am assuming they will be unavailable at the time I evaluate these at the end of next year, so I have to work with what I expect to have, which will probably just be sleazy estimates of 3Q2009 that will be "revised" later, as always.)
I have a few personal predictions that I won't talk about here because you can't measure whether I am successful on them against any objective standard -- they are issues or people that I don't talk about here. So let's see, of the things I talk about -- I am not even sure that I'm going to successfully buy a house (my real estate agent is reading this right now and groaning at that, I assure you), the car thing I'm not sure of, I don't want anything to change about my job (hi employer!). I'm going to go with:
- I am going to put up an additional new web site in 2009.
- The Western Syndicate site will still be going same as ever at the end of 2009.
How did I do
I've decided that life is too short to agonize about this. This is just for fun after all.
So let's see. Last year this is what I predicted:
- In the summer of 2008, there will be record hot days, which will be attributed by some to global warming.
Right. This is a freebie -- it's always true, of course. There is really a lot of doubt circulating about global warming right now, in light of the two consecutive very cold winters we have been having (so far), a decline in global temperatures that is very steep recently that no one has really been able to deny (although you can debate of course whether it's a trend or just some more data points), and the interesting story about significantly decreased solar activity, which I have discussed on this blog before here.
- The Dow or NASDAQ will close above its 12/31/2007 closing level.
Badly wrong. Well, the big thing that I didn't see coming very clearly was the magnitude of the economic blowup. I saw it coming, but figured it would not be as large as it was, and we would be digging our way out of it by the second half of 2008 (hence my prediction that the market indexes would be on their way back up by now.)
- Obligatory Presidential election predictions: Michael Bloomberg will not run for US President. No third-party candidate will capture more than 1.5% of the vote.
Right on. It went about like I expected. Oh, except for the Obama thing. I was really expecting Hillary to be elected, but I didn't want to go out and predict that formally (good thing, too).
- I will buy a new car.
Wrong. So you would think that the prediction that I had total control of over myself, I would have been able to succeed with. There was a lot of uncertainty about my employer earlier in the year, then I was in the market to buy a house (which I didn't), then of course the economy turned really far south. So my original intention to purchase a car has been tabled indefinitely. Which is fine. I love my current car and wasn't really looking forward to trading it in anyway.
So let's see. Last year this is what I predicted:
- In the summer of 2008, there will be record hot days, which will be attributed by some to global warming.
Right. This is a freebie -- it's always true, of course. There is really a lot of doubt circulating about global warming right now, in light of the two consecutive very cold winters we have been having (so far), a decline in global temperatures that is very steep recently that no one has really been able to deny (although you can debate of course whether it's a trend or just some more data points), and the interesting story about significantly decreased solar activity, which I have discussed on this blog before here.
- The Dow or NASDAQ will close above its 12/31/2007 closing level.
Badly wrong. Well, the big thing that I didn't see coming very clearly was the magnitude of the economic blowup. I saw it coming, but figured it would not be as large as it was, and we would be digging our way out of it by the second half of 2008 (hence my prediction that the market indexes would be on their way back up by now.)
- Obligatory Presidential election predictions: Michael Bloomberg will not run for US President. No third-party candidate will capture more than 1.5% of the vote.
Right on. It went about like I expected. Oh, except for the Obama thing. I was really expecting Hillary to be elected, but I didn't want to go out and predict that formally (good thing, too).
- I will buy a new car.
Wrong. So you would think that the prediction that I had total control of over myself, I would have been able to succeed with. There was a lot of uncertainty about my employer earlier in the year, then I was in the market to buy a house (which I didn't), then of course the economy turned really far south. So my original intention to purchase a car has been tabled indefinitely. Which is fine. I love my current car and wasn't really looking forward to trading it in anyway.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Posting rate
Of course 2006 had a slightly higher posting rate, since I started part of the way into the year.
Of course if I keep following up to myself one minute after the previous post, I'm going to throw the statistics off.
Ahh! Self-conscious!
Of course if I keep following up to myself one minute after the previous post, I'm going to throw the statistics off.
Ahh! Self-conscious!
As we approach the end of the year
I have to talk about my rather poor performance with my 2008 predictions (and I'll get to that). Also it is a good time to think about what's going to happen in 2009.
But I am finding that thought process kind of intimidating. In order to explain what I think are going to be my 2009 predictions, I will have to write a lot of text. You have probably noticed that I am not one of those people who easily writes one of those 50000 word stream of consciousness blog posts. The fact that I've started using Twitter is probably going to make me talk in even shorter sentence fragments.
Also, in other news, we now have more posts here in 2008 than in 2007, but just barely. It is interesting to me that in the almost 3 years that this blog has been around, I have a pretty consistent posting rate, and I haven't been particularly trying to. It is also pretty interesting to me that I haven't abandoned this yet. That's kind of a pleasant surprise.
But I am finding that thought process kind of intimidating. In order to explain what I think are going to be my 2009 predictions, I will have to write a lot of text. You have probably noticed that I am not one of those people who easily writes one of those 50000 word stream of consciousness blog posts. The fact that I've started using Twitter is probably going to make me talk in even shorter sentence fragments.
Also, in other news, we now have more posts here in 2008 than in 2007, but just barely. It is interesting to me that in the almost 3 years that this blog has been around, I have a pretty consistent posting rate, and I haven't been particularly trying to. It is also pretty interesting to me that I haven't abandoned this yet. That's kind of a pleasant surprise.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Let us turn to the light
Today is my favorite day of the year -- the days start getting longer.
The O Antiphon for today (for those of you who are observing Advent) echoes the season.
O Oriens, splendor lucis aeternae, et sol iustitiae: veni, et illumina sedentes in tenebris et umbra mortis.
[O dawn of the east, brightness of light eternal, and sun of justice: come, and enlighten those who sit in darkness and in the shadow of death.]
The O Antiphon for today (for those of you who are observing Advent) echoes the season.
O Oriens, splendor lucis aeternae, et sol iustitiae: veni, et illumina sedentes in tenebris et umbra mortis.
[O dawn of the east, brightness of light eternal, and sun of justice: come, and enlighten those who sit in darkness and in the shadow of death.]
Friday, December 19, 2008
"Weapons? Does U.S. abandon shield?"
Russia to axe some weapons if U.S. abandons shield
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will stop developing some strategic weapons if the United States drops plans for a missile shield in Europe, Interfax news agency quoted the commander of Russia's strategic missile forces as saying on Friday.
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will stop developing some strategic weapons if the United States drops plans for a missile shield in Europe, Interfax news agency quoted the commander of Russia's strategic missile forces as saying on Friday.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Generous
me: I'm feeling unusually generous today so you should take advantage of it while it lasts.
roommate: I don't want your money.
me: I'm not giving you money. I'm giving you broccoli.
roommate: I don't want your money.
me: I'm not giving you money. I'm giving you broccoli.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Thinking about contests
I have been thinking of having a "guess how many posts will be made to the Western Syndicate in 2008" contest.
What amuses me about this, of course, is that I have total control over what the final number would be, so you have incentive to bribe me. But I haven't quite figured out what the prize might be if you "guess right".
What amuses me about this, of course, is that I have total control over what the final number would be, so you have incentive to bribe me. But I haven't quite figured out what the prize might be if you "guess right".
Monday, December 08, 2008
Happy sky
Great info here at the NASA web site about this photo of the recent appearance of the Moon, Jupiter and Venus in the sky (last week). (You can download a huge version of the photo by clicking here -- great to use as a desktop background.)
F-18 crash
Today's F-18 crash happened a few minutes down the freeway from here -- we're close enough to the Miramar air station to hear the jets flying over frequently but we're not directly in the path to the runway.
Friday, December 05, 2008
Surgery by text message
I am just fascinated by this story. British surgeon tells of how he carried out amputation via text message
Admin
I put the Twitter feed back (now that I've been updating Twitter again) and took away the Amazon ads (which I don't think were doing anyone any good, including me.)
Move away
More of the Desert Fathers.
It was said of Abba Ammoes that when he went to church, he did not allow his disciple to walk beside him but only at a certain distance; and if the latter came to ask him about his thoughts, he would move away from him as soon as he had replied, saying to him, 'It is for fear that, after edifying words, irrelevant conversation should slip in, that I do not keep you with me.'
It was said of Abba Ammoes that when he went to church, he did not allow his disciple to walk beside him but only at a certain distance; and if the latter came to ask him about his thoughts, he would move away from him as soon as he had replied, saying to him, 'It is for fear that, after edifying words, irrelevant conversation should slip in, that I do not keep you with me.'
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