Here comes the prediction?

So here's the thing about making predictions. There are two strategies you can use.

One strategy is to aim for having as high a success rate as you possibly can have. The best approach to use in that case is to take no risk in your predictions. Predict the obvious, and then voila, you'll be about 75% right. Actually, what's amazing is that when you try to predict only the completely obvious, you can still be 25% wrong.

The other strategy is to not worry about whether your predictions will be very accurate or not. Then at least you can try to say something interesting. On the other hand, since you're probably going to be wrong, "interesting but wrong" is not actually very useful.

Doesn't sound like a very winning game to me.

When I try to make predictions, I tend to predict that improbable things will happen, and then maybe one of them does, but the other ones all don't, so I look like I don't know what I'm talking about. So maybe I should try to mix them up a little more.

Are those enough caveats? OK. See, I don't have a lot to work with here. Here are some things that I think will happen in 2008:

- In the summer of 2008, there will be record hot days, which will be attributed by some to global warming.
- The Dow or NASDAQ will close above its 12/31/2007 closing level.
- Obligatory Presidential election predictions: Michael Bloomberg will not run for US President. No third-party candidate will capture more than 1.5% of the vote.
- I will buy a new car.

So I'm going with the "not too exciting" strategy. Let's see what happens.